So, although some milder and unsettled weather appears likely, there could be prolonged spells of drier weather as high pressure becomes dominant. It could turn cold at times with the more blocked weather too, though confidence is low on how cold and where may be coldest and see risk of wintry weather.
The UK annual average temperature was 9.97C for 2023, which is just 0.06C below the record high of 10.03C in 2022. This continues an observed warming of the UK climate since the 1960s. The hottest year in the UK during the whole of the 20th century was 1997, with an average temperature of 9.41C.
Temperature-wise, it's estimated that 2023 will be the hottest year on record - and probably in the last 120,000 years - with the Met Office forecasting 2024 to be hotter still. The UK has already warmed by more than 1C above the pre-industrial average, leading to winters shortening and summers lengthening.
Winter. Winter generally runs from November to March - though you can expect this to run longer during some years - and is characterized with cold weather, rain, sometimes snow and fog.
UK is no longer a cold country and must adapt to heat, say climate scientists. This news article considers the increasing likelihood of heatwaves in the UK due to climate change. The article includes an interview with Bob Ward who highlights the importance of taking measure to adapt to heat.
Even unusually cold weather is a sign of climate change in the UK. Global warming is starting to destabilise the Gulf Stream, which is what makes UK winters generally milder and wetter than other parts of northern Europe.
Projections show that the climate emergency could have considerable impacts in England. The current annual temperature is roughly 8.8 degrees Celsius, but by 2050 temperatures could rise to between 9.1 degrees Celsius and 11.7 degrees Celsius. The probability of heatwaves could also increase five-fold.
The other thing to think about is extra intensity of heatwaves on top of that, which would be more than five degrees hotter. ' If efforts to tackle global heating don't improve, parts of the UK could theoretically average 40C in July 2050, as shown in the Met Office image.
Signs indicate 2024 will be even hotter- and the UK is not prepared. The Met Office and experts from US science organisation Berkeley Earth believe 2024 could be even hotter than 2023, with weather phenomenon El Nino likely to add even more heat to that generated by human-induced global warming.
Winter is the coldest month in the UK, running roughly from December to February (although November can often suffer very wintry conditions too). Temperatures often get as low as freezing point (0oC), though not too much colder usually.
In July, the jet stream shifted southwards, flowing across the UK and Ireland, carrying low pressure systems directly to us. This set-up is more akin to it's winter position, when the temperature difference is greater and the jet stream becomes stronger.
Though it has been reported in some places that a snow bomb could hit the UK, the Met Office has debunked those claims, saying that while there will be low pressure across the UK, only higher ground will see snow and any resemblance to a snow bomb is incredibly unlikely.
Tulloch Bridge and Aviemore in Scotland recorded a mixture of rain and snow on Christmas day - despite parts of the country reaching the highest minimum daily temperature on record for 25 December.
After an unsettled but mild start to 2023, blustery showers and longer spells of rain in all areas are likely to characterise the second week of the month. Wintry conditions will sweep through the country from 8 January onwards, bringing with it the possibility of snow.
UK winters are projected to become warmer and wetter on average, although cold or dry winters will still occur sometimes. Summers are projected to become hotter and are more likely to be drier, although wetter summers are also possible.
How much of the UK will be underwater? Large areas of the UK could be underwater by 2100, including parts of London and many of the coastal areas. Regions that we can expect to be hit the hardest are the southeast and northwest of England, south Wales, and central Scotland.
Although the UK's summer of 2023 has been something of a washout so far, the country is getting hotter, with temperatures over 40oC – first experienced in the UK in 2022 – set to become the norm.
Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer. The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050. Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100.
“The characteristic variability of the UK's climate has once again been illustrated by this summer: the season's temperature figures are influenced by how significantly hot June was, but the result is that summer 2023 will go down as a warm and wet one for the UK, with plenty of rainfall in the second half of the ...
By 2050, London's population could rise to 13 million citizens. There is a fear that the city's climate could be comparable to levels currently in Barcelona. “The Smoke” could be set for big changes and will adapt to keep up with them.
A reduction in the temperature difference between the equator and the North Pole due to declining sea ice could potentially reduce the strength of the westerly winds, leading to a greater occurrence of negative NAO and an increase the risk of cold winters. However, warming could also cause air to rise over the Arctic.
Researchers launched a solar geoengineering test flight in the UK last fall. The experiment, largely designed to test equipment, took place despite deep concerns about the technology.
These long-term trends, combined with detailed attribution studies, point to a long-term warming trend of the UK's climate and a reduction in cold events. One study showed that the chance of experiencing a December as cold as the one in 2010 is about half of what it was in the 1960s.
