Where in the UK is most likely to have a white Christmas?
Edinburgh Edinburgh! The capital city of Scotland has a 33.33 per cent chance of seeing snow this Christmas. The capital city of Scotland is one of the most beautiful cities in the UK.
In England, Newcastle (2/1) is most likely coated with snow on Christmas morning, followed by Leeds (5/2) and Manchester (3/1), while seeing Christmas Day snow in London is a 7/1 chance. Before then though, Britons can expect more wet and windy weather in the week before the big day.
According to betting.com, the chances of a white Christmas somewhere in the UK are 7/4, with London being an outside bet at 9/1. The latest odds were given on December 14. White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Those most likely regions to see a white Christmas are mainly in the western U.S. mountains, parts of the northern and perhaps central Plains, and the Northeast U.S. mountains and areas downwind of the Great Lakes.
However white Christmases do occur, on average every 6 years. Christmas 2009 was a white Christmas in some parts of Britain, with thick lying snow which easterly winds had brought over the previous week.
It forecasts that the most affected areas could witness up to 9.5 inches of snow on the ground. A Met Office spokesperson told the Independent that it has a 'high degree of confidence it will be a white Christmas this year'. But probably not for everyone. They added: 'that does not mean we will see blankets of snow.
Snow, sleet and rain moved across parts of Scotland, with Tulloch Bridge and Aviemore recording snowflakes, the Met Office said. The forecaster said this made Christmas Day 2023 an “official white Christmas”, which is defined by at least one snowflake falling on 25 December.
Meanwhile in the UK, 2021 was the last white Christmas with 6% of stations recording snow falling, but less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground. The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was also in 2010.
When was the last time it snowed on Christmas Day UK?
This 'wet' snow is great if you want to channel your inner Elsa and make your own Olaf. Technically, 2022 was the last white Christmas in the UK, with 9 per cent of weather stations recording snow falling.
So, although some milder and unsettled weather appears likely, there could be prolonged spells of drier weather as high pressure becomes dominant. It could turn cold at times with the more blocked weather too, though confidence is low on how cold and where may be coldest and see risk of wintry weather.
As per the records, the Cairngorms National Park holds the distinction of being the nation's snowiest location. If we go by the reports of the Met Office, while Aviemore sees 66 days of snow annually, the Cairngorm chairlift weather station records 76.
Snowflakes have fallen on Christmas Day in the UK 39 times in the last 53 years, according to the Met's records. By the above standards, the last white Christmas was technically 2021, when 6% of the country's stations recorded snowfall. However, less than 1% reported snow on the ground.
Though it has been reported in some places that a snow bomb could hit the UK, the Met Office has debunked those claims, saying that while there will be low pressure across the UK, only higher ground will see snow and any resemblance to a snow bomb is incredibly unlikely.
Temperature-wise, it's estimated that 2023 will be the hottest year on record - and probably in the last 120,000 years - with the Met Office forecasting 2024 to be hotter still. The UK has already warmed by more than 1C above the pre-industrial average, leading to winters shortening and summers lengthening.
2023 is provisionally the warmest year for the UK for minimum temperature. Human-induced climate change has made the UK's 2023 mean temperature significantly more likely compared to a pre-industrial climate.
Where does it have to snow in the UK to be a white Christmas?
In the eyes of the Met Office, it is officially classed as a white Christmas if a single snowflake falls on the ground in the 24 hours of December 25. The Scottish Highlands and the northern Pennines are the two areas most likely to see some snow this Christmas.
That means those living in England have experienced a white Christmas at least 25 times since 1967 – although people may not have seen a single snowflake in some of those years. Northern Ireland, meanwhile, has experienced 15 white Christmases in the last 50 years.
The hottest Christmas Day on record was 15.6C in 1920, and there is a chance – albeit a small one – this could be matched or even beaten, the Met Office says. The Met Office said temperatures hit 15.3C in Heathrow, west London, and Cippenham in Slough.
For more southern areas of the UK away from the highest hills there have only been six classic widespread white Christmas days when snow has fallen and laid giving a good cover during the 20th century. They were 1906, 1917, 1923, 1938, 1956 and 1970.
