Predictions suggest that White British people could become a minority in the UK within the next 40 years, potentially by the 2060s, driven by high immigration, lower birth rates compared to minority groups, and an aging population. While white British residents made up about 74.4% of the population in 2021,, this share is projected to decline to around 57% by 2050.
The fastest-growing minority in the UK, particularly in terms of percentage increase and becoming a significant demographic, is often identified as Mixed/Multiple ethnic groups, closely followed by growth within the Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh category and the Other ethnic group (including White Other), with significant drivers being migration, differing fertility/ageing patterns, and evolving self-identification in censuses.
Strong evidence is found for the first two hypotheses, with evidence of an overall decline in prejudice and of a sharp decline in prejudices among generations who have grown up since mass black and Asian immigration began in the 1950s.
White British people will be a minority in 40 years - new report claims | The Daily T
Is the white British population declining?
Between the 2001 and 2021 UK censuses the "white British" ethnic group fell by about 1.2 million people. What percentage of this fall in population do you attribute to emigration specifically as opposed to other factors such as sub-replacement fertility or more mixed race relationships?
Europe has been losing population since 2021, according to numbers by the United Nations Population Division. Among the 10 fastest shrinking places on Earth are six on the continent: Greece, San Marino and Belarus as well as Balkan nations Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Kosovo.
Projections suggest the White British population will significantly decrease, potentially falling from around 73% in 2025 to approximately 57% by 2050, with some studies indicating they could become a minority by the mid-2060s, driven by differing birth rates and migration patterns, though these are complex forecasts.
Gypsy, Roma and Traveller people. Racism against Gypsy, Roma and Traveller people is widespread in the United Kingdom, with surveys indicating that levels of prejudice against GRT people are higher than against any other group.
Yes, Islam is growing in the UK, being the fastest-growing religion according to the 2021 census, with the Muslim population reaching 3.9 million (6.5% of the total), up from 2.7 million in 2011, driven by both higher birth rates in the younger Muslim demographic and migration, though some growth also reflects increased willingness to self-identify as Muslim.
By 2100, India is projected to remain the world's most populous country, though with significant growth and eventual stabilization, while China's population shrinks drastically, and African nations like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) rapidly rise in the ranks, reshaping global demographics with several African countries becoming major population centers.
Cities across the UK regions with high White British populations included Swansea (91.5%), Kingston Upon Hull (89.7%), Plymouth (92.2%), Darlington (93.7%), Belfast (96.4% – NI classification "white"), Norwich (84.7%), Liverpool (84.8%) and Chelmsford (90.0%).
According to annual estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, as of July 1, 2024, the Asian population was estimated at 22,080,844, representing approximately 6.49% of the total U.S. population, making them the fastest growing and fourth largest racial and ethnic group in the United States after African Americans, ...
While public opinion polls show growing support in Britain for rejoining the EU, with more wanting to rejoin than stay out, the current UK government, led by Labour, has firmly stated it will not seek to rejoin, the single market, or the customs union, instead focusing on a "strategic partnership" to improve relations. The government emphasizes making the current post-Brexit relationship work, despite acknowledging benefits like potential trade deals, but remains committed to staying outside the EU bloc, a position supported by the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who rules out rejoining.
See the Background Notes for further information. Figure 3.1 shows the proportion of the population in each ethnic group in Ireland and Northern Ireland. In Ireland in 2022, 86% of the population identified as White, compared with 97% in Northern Ireland in 2021.
Projections for life expectancy in 2300 suggest a significant increase, with some UN models expecting global averages between 87-106 years, potentially reaching into the high 90s or over 100 in developed regions due to medical advances, though some projections show regional variations with Western Asia near 100, while China and India might be closer to 90-95, assuming continued health improvements, but outcomes depend heavily on future fertility and mortality trends.
Projections for the UK's Muslim population by 2050 vary, with the Pew Research Center in 2017 suggesting figures ranging from 9.7% (no migration) to 17.2% (high migration) of the total population, potentially reaching around 13 million people under high migration scenarios, while other models project it could be around 11.2% or even up to one in five people by the century's end, driven by higher fertility rates and continued migration.
White demographic decline has been statistically observed by academics in relation to countries which conduct a national census and include a white racial or ethnic category. Notable experts and scholars of a multitude of fields of study have observed the demographic phenomenon of falling white demography.
A 2020 study in The Lancet concluded that "continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth", with projections suggesting world population would peak at 9.73 billion in 2064 and fall by 2100.
What is the fastest shrinking country in the world?
The UN says Bulgaria is actually the world's fastest shrinking nation, with its current population of about 7 million people expected to dwindle to 5.4 million by 2050 and 3.9 million by the end of the century.
